How is Bitcoin positioning itself amid recent on-chain disruptions and market corrections? The cryptocurrency has experienced significant turbulence, marked by historic shifts in mining difficulty and hashrate fluctuations. Significantly, the mining difficulty surged by 14.73% to 144.4 trillion on February 19, 2026, representing the largest absolute increase ever recorded, following a sharp 11% decline earlier in the month. This rebound suggests that the network is absorbing previous disruptions, potentially setting a foundation for price recovery. Meanwhile, the hashrate dropped between 12% and 20% since November 2025, signaling the largest drawdown since China’s mining ban in 2021, with weak miners capitulating amidst diminished profitability.
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty hits record increase, signaling recovery amid recent hashrate declines and miner shutdowns.
The hash ribbon indicator, a respected metric signaling miner behavior, fired as the 30-day moving average of the hashrate slid below the 60-day average for the first time since 2022, confirming a phase of miner capitulation. This phase involves less efficient miners shutting down operations, which typically precedes hashrate recovery once the 30-day average crosses back above the 60-day. Current trends show a gradual hashrate recovery towards 1 zetahash per second, with the mining difficulty already exceeding pre-disruption levels. This development, coupled with a declining miner selloff as evidenced by reduced public miner BTC disposal, may indicate stabilization in supply pressure. Notably, the hashrate has surged past 1 ZH/s after power was restored to key mining regions, underscoring a rapid recovery.
At the same time, on-chain valuation metrics point toward a possible accumulation phase following the correction. The MVRV ratio has entered the Accumulation Zone below 1.44, a condition not observed in four years, suggesting undervaluation relative to realized price and raising the possibility of a sharp market bottom. Meanwhile, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric remains negative, indicative of long-term holders underwater and signaling seller exhaustion. Historical patterns show such phases typically precede bull market recoveries as stronger hands absorb coins at depressed prices.
Price action reflects similar caution, as Bitcoin declined from $90,000 to a low near $60,000 between late January and mid-February 2026, a steep correction exceeding 50% from the October 2025 all-time high and the most significant since the FTX collapse. This retrenchment corresponded with a 58% collapse in open interest, suggesting cascading liquidations and heightened market stress. Support zones between $65,000 and $66,000 remain critical, although prevailing market sentiment remains subdued, as illustrated by BTC’s slight decline in recent 24-hour trading.
While miner economics exhibit strain, with margins 20% below breakeven since the start of 2026 and structural liquidity challenges, the gap between production cost and spot price narrows, potentially limiting further selling pressure. Public miner holdings data show a slowdown in BTC disposals, while whale accumulation increased modestly by 3.4% since mid-December 2025. Despite these signs of potential resilience, caution endures as forecasts from analysts such as Stifel project possible declines to $38,000 based on cyclical trends, highlighting downside risks tied to fading retail interest and the absence of a clear market capitulation signal. This environment warrants careful monitoring, as Bitcoin balances on the edge between stabilizing fundamentals and continued vulnerability.
