Although Bitcoin has recently eased from its intra-month highs, the cryptocurrency slipped to about $104,400, bringing it closer to the critical $100,000–$101,000 support band that traders and analysts are watching closely. Market indicators present mixed signals, with roughly 13% bullish sentiment contrasting with a Fear & Greed Index reading of 21, which signals extreme fear, and roughly half of the past 30 days showing positive closes amid about 4.61% volatility, suggesting short-term indecision. The price breach near $106,000 in recent trading reinforced caution among market participants, as momentum softened under the weight of a stronger US dollar and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, both of which have dampened risk appetite across crypto markets. Technical analysis points toward an immediate test of the $100,000–$101,000 zone, where the 50-week simple moving average sits as a closely watched support level and potential buying opportunity. Current market data also shows Bitcoin trading near $110,602 on real-time feeds, underscoring the gap between spot quotes and recent intramonth lows. On-chain metrics additionally show rising unrealised losses among short-term holders, a capitulation-like signal.
Traders and analysts outline downside scenarios should that support fail, noting sequential targets near $94,000 and $85,000, with more severe corrections discussed that could extend into the mid-$70,000s in an adverse market stress event. These forecasts are counterbalanced by projections for range-bound movement through the near term, with some expert models estimating a November 2025 band from about $100,000 up to roughly $123,000, and a December 2025 median near $110,000, which reflects a mix of seasonal tendencies and institutional positioning. Institutional flows have moderated, exemplified by Strategy’s October acquisition of 778 BTC versus 3,526 BTC in September, even as the fund holds a substantial 641,205 BTC stake purchased at an average near $74,000 and more recently averaging about $114,700 per BTC on new buys.
Market dynamics were further affected by a large-scale liquidation episode in mid-October that erased approximately $1.37 billion, a significant event that compressed short-term liquidity and influenced sentiment. Macro pressures from a resilient dollar and weakness in major technology equities have increased investor risk aversion, producing selling pressure across bitcoin and large-cap altcoins, and prompting continued caution among both retail and institutional participants.
