Regulatory scrutiny has intensified around spot cryptocurrency products, and Grayscale’s proposed HBAR spot ETF seeks to navigate that landscape by offering U.S. investors regulated exposure to Hedera’s native token. The Securities and Exchange Commission set a firm final decision date of November 12, 2025, with no further extensions permitted, applying specifically to Nasdaq’s listing proposal for the Grayscale Hedera (HBAR) Spot ETF. The agency must either approve or deny the listing and, in the event of a denial, is obliged to publish its reasons, a requirement that frames market expectations and creates a clear regulatory milestone for issuers and investors alike. The SEC’s timeline represents the maximum extension allowed under Section 19(b)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act and no further extensions are possible beyond that date. Listings on prestigious exchanges like Nasdaq often trigger event-driven price spikes that reflect investor perceptions of credibility rather than underlying fundamentals, adding complexity to market reactions.
Regulatory spotlight turns to Grayscale’s HBAR spot ETF as the SEC must decide by November 12, 2025
Grayscale structured the product as the Grayscale Hedera Trust, established on August 12, 2025, as a Delaware Statutory Trust under DSTA regulations, with the stated purpose of holding HBAR tokens to track the spot price less fees and liabilities. The trust expects continuous issuance and public trading of shares on Nasdaq under the ticker HBAR, and operational design choices emphasize custody arrangements and auditability intended to address SEC concerns. Market metrics underline the token’s scale and liquidity, with roughly 42.4 billion HBAR in circulation as of mid-2025 and a 24-hour trading volume near $115 million, placing HBAR around the 18th largest digital asset by market capitalization at about $6.4 billion in September 2025. Such a listing process involves meeting stringent criteria that help enhance visibility and credibility in global markets.
Investor interest has been evident in related launches, as altcoin spot ETFs such as those for Solana and Litecoin debuted with notable volumes and inflows, and Grayscale’s Canary HBAR ETF recorded approximately $44 million in net inflows during its first week, supporting demand signals that may influence the SEC’s calculus. Analysts estimate approval probabilities in the 60–80% range before year-end, reflecting a balance between demonstrated market appetite and regulatory caution.
Regulatory reservations persist, centered on surveillance, potential market manipulation, liquidity sufficiency, and investor protection, and the SEC’s prior delays cited needs for further research into surveillance systems and custody safeguards. Hedera’s ISO 20022 compliance and enterprise adoption are presented as mitigating factors, yet uncertainty remains, making the November decision a possible precedent for future altcoin spot ETF approvals. Additional market attention is focused on potential institutional inflows tied to approved products, which could materially affect trading volumes and custody needs, particularly if institutional demand intensifies.
