Bitcoin approached the $100,000 threshold in early 2026, reflecting a gradual recovery after an extended period of sideways trading near $88,000 that followed a significant pullback in late 2025. Throughout the start of the year, the cryptocurrency exhibited range-bound behavior, largely constrained by weaker demand and prevailing macroeconomic challenges that curtailed upward momentum. Despite struggling to reclaim critical resistance levels, the market showed signs of underlying adjustment, with several on-chain metrics indicating an easing of sell-side pressures that had dominated previous months.
One notable development was the 30-day net change in long-term holder supply turning positive by approximately 10,700 BTC, marking a pivotal shift as these investors ceased large-scale distribution after enduring months of net outflows. This positive net change reflects a transfer of supply back into stronger hands, historically associated with markets finding equilibrium following corrections. Historically, such a shift has aligned with periods where markets find equilibrium following corrections, suggesting a cautiously optimistic stance among this cohort. Concurrently, exchange netflow data revealed continuing net outflows, which effectively decreased available BTC on spot markets and contributed to diminishing immediate selling pressure, although the overall price action remained relatively unresponsive in the short term. According to trading platforms, Bitcoin price data around January 5, 2026, suggests heightened market focus at this price level.
Market indicators, including three separate signals from CryptoQuant, reinforced the narrative of tightening supply dynamics beneath the surface, even if broader investor sentiment remains tentative. Options traders have started positioning themselves for a potential return to the $100,000 level, reflecting measured optimism despite the absence of decisive follow-through buying. The prediction markets, tracking anticipation of price thresholds above $100,000, provide additional context for this cautious hopeful stance within the community.
Looking ahead, a rapid advance to $100,000 would likely require new catalysts, as current conditions point toward ongoing consolidation that may serve to build a more stable foundation for subsequent recovery. Demand remains subdued amid tighter liquidity and postponed expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, limiting immediate upside. Macro uncertainty persists as a cap on momentum, underscoring the importance of monitoring evolving factors before confirming a sustained market turnaround.
